Natural Rubber Daily: Prices Swing High Like a "Pendulum"(Oct 9)

Natural Rubber Daily: Prices Swing High Like a "Pendulum"

On October 9, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market stood at USD 2,670/ton, up USD 70/ton from the previous trading day.

Overseas Supply

In southern Thailand, excessive rainfall has disrupted tapping operations, and raw material output is constrained. In Vietnam, production areas continue to experience overcast and rainy conditions, with intermittent rainfall disrupting tapping progress. Overall output fluctuates with weather conditions, and expectations of periodic supply contraction support firm raw material prices within the week.

Domestic Supply

In Yunnan, no rainfall has been recorded, and latex output is gradually increasing. However, competition among processing plants to secure supply is intense, keeping purchase prices firm.

In Hainan, brief rainfall occurred, affecting tapping operations to some extent. Overall purchase prices stopped declining and rose slightly.

Demand Side

Enterprises that previously underwent maintenance are gradually resuming production. Some tire enterprises resumed operations from October 5-7, while others delayed restart to around October 10. The overall industry operating rate has risen noticeably. On the market side, post-holiday channels and retail outlets have begun restocking based on essential demand, and channel sales are expected to improve.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Summary

Currently, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the natural rubber market, and the market lacks a clear direction. On the support side, production area processing plants are bidding aggressively for raw materials, keeping costs at high levels and providing strong floor support for rubber prices. Bullish sentiment is rising accordingly. However, pressure is equally evident on the other side: downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials persists, procurement remains cautious, and a concentrated restocking cycle is unlikely to materialize post-holiday. The demand side is clearly capping the upside potential for rubber prices. Overall, under the tug-of-war between cost floor support and demand suppression, the natural rubber market is expected to maintain wide-range fluctuations at high levels in the short term.

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