Carbon Black Daily: Has Carbon Black Hit Bottom?(Oct 9)

Carbon Black Daily: Has Carbon Black Hit Bottom?

According to data from Tuduoduo, the carbon black price index on October 9 stood at 9,649, flat from the previous trading day.

Carbon Black Market Prices

Carbon Black Market Impact Analysis

1. Upstream Raw Materials: Coal tar prices in Shandong region stood at RMB 5,450/ton; in Shanxi region at RMB 5,410/ton; and in Hebei region at RMB 5,475/ton. Auction prices for high-temperature coal tar across major domestic production areas have been released successively, showing a mixed trend of gains and losses, as the market gradually returns to normal operations.

2. Carbon Black Supply: Operating rates at sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market have declined. New contract prices for raw material coal tar are trending downward, and previously high raw material prices led to low inventory levels. Downstream tire enterprises have reduced procurement volumes, dampening market operating enthusiasm. During this period, a manufacturer in Shandong underwent maintenance, and a major North China plant reduced operating loads, leading to a decline in carbon black market operating data.

3. Downstream Demand: Enterprises that previously underwent maintenance are gradually resuming production. Some tire enterprises resumed operations from October 5-7, while others delayed restart to around October 10. The overall industry operating rate has risen noticeably. On the market side, post-holiday channels and retail outlets have begun restocking based on essential demand, and channel sales are expected to improve.

Market Summary

The carbon black market is currently in a phase of "slowing decline, awaiting stabilization." New contracts remain weak, with the downward trend fairly pronounced. Post-holiday, raw material market auction new contract prices show mixed gains and losses, and cost-side pressure remains significant. However, as the pace of decline on the cost side converges, the carbon black market is expected to gradually stop falling. Nevertheless, demand-side drag persists, as downstream tire enterprises' operating rate recovery is slow, procurement enthusiasm is muted, and purchasing is primarily needs-based with insufficient active inventory-building willingness. With cost pressure and demand weakness counterbalancing each other, short-term carbon black new contracts are likely to remain in a stable wait-and-see mode, awaiting clear directional guidance.

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